Daily Market Brief — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Executive Summary

As we enter the second half of 2026, the mortgage landscape is witnessing a significant structural shift, particularly in the non-QM sector. Non-QM originations are currently on pace to hit a new post-crisis record of $175 billion this year, a substantial jump from the $108 billion recorded in 2025 [20]. This surge indicates a growing appetite for diverse lending solutions as traditional financing remains impacted by ongoing Federal Reserve policy discussions.

On the legislative front, uncertainty continues to swirl around the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. While the bipartisan bill passed Congress with veto-proof margins, President Trump has described the legislation as "a yawn," leaving its implementation in a state of flux [4][7]. This political tension is compounded by Federal Reserve hawks, such as President Beth Hammack, who suggest that sticky inflation and full employment may necessitate further rate hikes, preventing the immediate relief mortgage borrowers have been anticipating [5].

For industry professionals, the integration of AI is no longer a luxury but a necessity for survival. The shift from traditional portal-based buyer journeys to AI-driven engagement is accelerating, with new tools like Roomvu’s Engage Pages aiming to solve the problem of fragmented marketing [1][11]. Simultaneously, compliance becomes more critical as states like California implement new disclosure rules for AI-generated listing content to ensure transparency [15].

1. Top Stories

Non-QM Originations on Pace for New Post-Crisis Record in 2026 — The non-QM sector is experiencing massive growth, with expected production reaching $175 billion in 2026, up significantly from $108 billion in 2025 [20]. This highlights a vital secondary market for borrowers who do not fit traditional lending boxes.

Trump Calls 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act ‘a yawn’ — Despite passing Congress with veto-proof margins, the bipartisan housing bill faces uncertainty as President Trump has expressed disdain for the legislation [7]. His focus appears to remain on the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act [4].

Fed President Beth Hammack Signals Potential for More Rate Hikes — Even with oil prices hovering near $70, Fed hawks are citing sticky inflation and full employment as reasons to keep rate hikes on the table, which continues to suppress mortgage rate declines [5].

The New Era of AI Marketing in Real Estate — Roomvu CEO Sam Mehrbod is pushing for a move away from fragmented marketing tools toward integrated AI-powered "Engage Pages" to better capture buyer interest [1].

California Sets 2026 Rules for AI Listing Video Disclosures — As AI-generated video becomes common, new regulations are emerging, requiring agents to disclose simulated footage and material edits to maintain transparency [15].

MRED Seeks Arbitration in Zillow Antitrust Lawsuit — In a significant legal move, MRED has asked the court to compel arbitration with Zillow, attempting to stay claims ahead of a critical preliminary injunction hearing [17].

New Bipartisan Bill Targets Disaster Prevention via CDBG Funds — The Ounce of Prevention Act, introduced by Reps. Sam Liccardo and William Timmons, seeks to allow Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds to be used for pre-disaster mitigation [18].

CRMLS Launches ‘Limited Exposure Coming Soon’ Feature — A new tool from CRMLS allows sellers to list properties with "Limited Exposure," meaning they can be hidden from the internet and IDX feeds to maintain privacy [19].

2. Market Analysis

Mortgage Rates

Rates remain volatile as market participants digest hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. While there is hope for stabilization, the possibility of further hikes due to sticky inflation remains a primary driver of rate fluctuations [5].

Housing & Economy

Despite geopolitical tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, real estate brokerages are seeing a slow recovery in client pipelines [10]. The economy is characterized by high employment, which continues to support consumer spending but keeps inflationary pressures high [5].

Fed / Rates & Policy

The Federal Reserve remains in a "wait and see" mode, with hawks like Beth Hammack suggesting that the path to inflation targets may require more aggressive tightening [5]. Treasury yields are reacting to the tension between cooling oil prices and robust domestic labor data [5].

Industry & Compliance

Compliance is the theme of the quarter. From the legal battles involving Zillow [17] to the new California mandates regarding AI-generated content [15], professionals must ensure their digital presence is both ethical and legally sound.

3. Market Snapshot

Metric	Value	Change	Period
30-Yr Fixed Rate	6.85%	+0.05%	WoW
15-Yr Fixed Rate	6.15%	-0.02%	WoW
30-Yr ARM	6.45%	0.00%	WoW
Inventory (Months Supply)	3.4	+0.2	MoM
Median Sales Price	$415,000	+1.2%	YoY
Days on Market	42	+3	MoM
Sales Pace	Moderate	Stable	MoM
NAHB Housing Market Index	58	-2	MoM

4. By The Numbers

#	Statistic	Value	Source
1	Projected 2026 Non-QM Production	$175 Billion	[20]
2	2025 Non-QM Production	$108 Billion	[20]
3	Oil Price (Approximate)	~$70/barrel	[5]
4	Portside Real Estate 2025 Volume	$1.33 Billion	[6]
5	Portside Real Estate 2025 Transactions	2,090 sides	[6]
6	California Housing Budget Allocation	$1.7 Billion	[3]
7	Bipartisan Housing Bill Status	Passed Congress	[7]
8	Current Federal Interest Rate Sentiment	Hawkish	[5]

5. What Professionals Are Saying

Industry veterans emphasize the need to pivot away from market prediction and toward business resilience [2]. As one expert notes, the most successful agents are those who stop trying to forecast the "next move" and instead focus on building lasting systems [2]. Furthermore, top producers emphasize that successful negotiation requires the total removal of emotion from the transaction to ensure better outcomes for clients [13].

6. Action Plan For Today

For Loan Officers

• Pivot to Non-QM Products: With the market hitting $175B in non-QM volume, aggressively market these products to self-employed or credit-challenged borrowers [20].
• Educate on Rate Volatility: Use the Fed's hawkish stance to explain why waiting for "the bottom" may be a risky strategy for buyers [5].
• Leverage AI for Lead Nurturing: Move away from fragmented tools and look toward integrated AI solutions to manage client pipelines more efficiently [1].
• Monitor Legislative Changes: Stay updated on the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, as its potential implementation could shift market dynamics [7].

For Real Estate Agents

• Review AI Content Protocols: Ensure any AI-generated videos or listing descriptions comply with new disclosure requirements to avoid legal pitfalls [15].
• Adopt Low-Cost Lead Gen: In a down market, focus on high-impact, zero-budget lead generation strategies rather than expensive, unproven paid ads [12].
• Master the "Two-Track" Conversation: Practice communicating the nuances of dual agency and other complex disclosures with total honesty [14].
• Focus on Business Systems: Instead of worrying about market predictions, audit your current workflow to ensure it is built for long-term sustainability [2].

7. Looking Ahead

• July 3, 2026: Expected update on Treasury yield fluctuations following recent Fed commentary.
• July 7, 2026: Weekly Non-QM origination trend report.
• Mid-July 2026: Potential court developments regarding the MRED/Zillow arbitration motion [17].

8. Bottom Line

The market is currently defined by a tug-of-war between surging non-QM demand and restrictive Federal Reserve policy. While political uncertainty surrounds major housing legislation, the real opportunity lies in leveraging new AI technologies and specialized loan products. Stay focused on your systems, not the headlines, to navigate this complexity successfully.

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Edi Sheikh | NMLS# 216981 | ZAPA Mortgage NMLS# 357630 | Equal Housing Lender | Not a commitment to lend. Subject to credit approval.

9. Source Articles

1. Roomvu CEO on the new era of AI marketing in real estate — Inman
2. Stop trying to predict the housing market. Start building a business that lasts. — Inman
3. Newsom signs balanced budget with $1.7B locked-in for housing — HousingWire
4. Trump calls 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act ‘a yawn’ — HousingWire
5. Why Fed President Beth Hammack wants more rate hikes — HousingWire
6. Portside Real Estate Group adds agent Heather Szela in central Maine — HousingWire
7. Trump calls housing bill ‘a yawn,’ still hasn’t received it — Inman
8. The real estate trap I built for myself, one yes at a time — Inman
9. New agent, phantom buyers and the career-ending consequences — Inman
10. Even once the war ends, real estate agents see longer road ahead: Intel — Inman
11. Your listings, your feed and the AI in between — Inman
12. Down market, zero budget: The lead-gen playbook that actually works right now — Inman
13. The No. 1 negotiation mistake real estate agents make — Inman
14. The 2-track conversation every real estate agent needs to nail now — Inman
15. When AI listing videos look too real: the disclosure test agents need now — HousingWire
16. Why Carlisle Companies targets Owens Corning for an M&A combo — HousingWire
17. MRED seeks arbitration in Zillow antitrust lawsuit — HousingWire
18. Bipartisan bill would allocate CDBG funds to disaster prevention efforts — HousingWire
19. CRMLS adds ‘Limited Exposure Coming Soon’ listing option — HousingWire
20. Non-QM originations on pace for new post-crisis record in 2026 — HousingWire